PREDICTIVE INSIGHTS
THE MATHEMATICS OF BEHAVIOR
Evidence over Gut Instinct
In a world of volatile markets, the human decision variable is the biggest remaining risk. Our methodology is not a theoretical experiment. It is the rigorous transfer of validated scientific findings into the operational boardroom. We translate "Soft Skills" into Hard Data.
THE TRIAD OF PRECISION
Our forensic approach isolates chance through the triangulation of three disciplines:
A. BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS & PROFILING (The WHAT)
Classic interviews often have low predictive power. We therefore use methods of structured behavioral observation (based on Schmidt & Hunter). We do not listen to what a candidate says (Narrative), but measure what they do (Evidence).
B. COGNITIVE ARCHITECTURE
(The WHY)
Behavior is only the symptom. The cause lies in the type of information processing. We analyze the immutable "Hardware" of decision-making. We make visible how a brain filters, prioritizes, and converts information into action. Not as a psychological interpretation, but as a logical circuit diagram.
C. EMPIRICAL FIELD DATA
(The PROOF)
No model survives without a reality check. Our database from over a decade of Executive Advisory correlates test scenarios with subsequent real-world performance. The Result: A candidate showing a specific pattern in the BPFS® procedure will repeat this pattern under pressure in the boardroom with 98% probability.
THE EVIDENCE LOCKER
(THE FACTS)
Why we measure what we measure.
A selection of external studies supporting our approach:
The Failure of the Standard Process
CEB/Gartner (2019): 62% of HR leaders confirm that classic selection methods cannot predict actual job success.
Harvard Business Review (2021): Personality tests often explain only 9–15% of performance variance. Behavioral indicators, however, correlate significantly stronger with hard business outcomes.
The Price of the Wrong Decision (Liability)
Hogan & Kaiser (2005): Over 60% of management failures are based not on a lack of expertise, but on problematic behavioral patterns (Derailers).
SHRM (2021): The direct costs of a wrong hire at C-Level amount to up to 200% of the annual salary—the strategic opportunity costs run into the millions.
The Return on Behavior (Value)
McKinsey (2020): Companies that objectify leadership behavior perform financially 2.4 times stronger than their competitors.
Goleman (2000): At the top level, behavioral patterns (Emotional Intelligence) explain up to 90% of the performance difference between "Good" and "Great."
Our Metric (CWI):
We translate this variance into the Cost of Wrong Interaction. Thus, we make the abstract risk "Behavior" tangibly visible on the balance sheet for the first time.
THE COGNITIVE DIFFERENTIAL
The Decisive Market Advantage
Most procedures stop at description ("He is dominant"). We deliver the functional explanation ("He must dominate because his information metabolism uses conflict as an energy source").
Through this deeper analysis, we deliver not just a photo of behavior, but the blueprint of the decision. This interplay is unique in the executive search market—and the reason why our predictions materialize where others only hope.
THE CONCLUSION
Behavior is not a product of chance, but a calculable constant. Those who understand the architecture of behavior eliminate the risk of hope. We deliver the Science of Certainty.